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An article by Levina
If you thought the Middle East was difficult to understand, then you must see what’s happening in Myanmar. The Southeast Asian country of Myanmar is on the verge of splitting, as the Myanmar Army, also called the junta, has lost control over 60% of the country. As Myanmar’s opposition rushes to Europe for discussions and China jumps in to negotiate “peace” in Myanmar, we bring you some lesser-known information about Myanmar, along with India and China’s options in the country. For example, did you know Ukraine still supplies anti-drone equipment, or that Switzerland trains Myanmar’s opposition? This situation is akin to Syria and Yemen, where multiple countries have their interests.
On February 1st, 2021, Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government, ending a short-lived period of imperfect democracy and plunging the Southeast Asian nation into full-scale civil war. Now, around the third anniversary of the coup, the military regime is at its weakest, having lost swathes of territory to a number of disparate rebel groups.
The coup spawned a widespread campaign of peaceful civil resistance, which was met with a violent crackdown in the following weeks and months. A parallel government in exile called the National Unity Government (NUG) was established by ousted lawmakers, activists, and representatives from a number of minority groups. The NUG then went on to form an armed wing called the People’s Defense Force (PDF) with the goal of resisting the military and protecting their own supporters from military repression, which had escalated since the coup.
The nearly three-year-long war against the military government is not just being waged by the People’s Defense Forces, which are largely made up of the majority Bamar ethnic group. Equally, if not more significant, is the resistance of the numerous armed ethnic minority organizations based in Myanmar’s peripheral states.
What might Myanmar’s future actually look like?
Well, we’re going to take a look at a few possibilities. Firstly, the end of the military regime. If the military is eventually beaten back to the point of surrender or defeat. At this point, it’s important to point out that the various ethnic armed organizations and the NUG’s People’s Defense Forces are not all part of a formally tightly knit alliance. One article summed up the resistance movement as an array of groups with varying alliances, loyalties, military capabilities, and objectives, albeit with a common enemy. The relationship between the PDFs and ethnic armies is a complex. Nevertheless, the National Unity Government and various ethnic rebel groups have declared their intention to rebuild Myanmar as a multiethnic federal democracy, hoping to put an end to the persistent ethnic conflicts and rebellions which have plagued the country since its inception.
Lets assume the opposition now in exile makes govt under such circumstances.
In the event of the defeat of the military regime, the wide-ranging resistance movement would no longer have a common enemy, and it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the underlying interethnic tensions make a resurgence, and a new civilian government finds itself at odds with its former allies. And this might lead to Myanmar splitting
What’s with the European and American interests in Myanmar?
The main aim of all the countries is to control the ports of Myanmar. This so bcoz Myanmar is China’s neighbour. So everyone from USA to Europe have deep interests here.
Recently there was news of Switzerland training Myanmar’s opposition.. According to reports DCAF (Geneva Center for Security Sector Governance), commissioned by the Swiss government, provides online training for the opposition which started after military coup in 2021. Those who take the courses include agents from the NUG’s defence ministry and its intelligence service as well as representatives of the ethnic armed groups and People’s Defence Force (PDF) units.
In Nov last year Zin Mar Aung, foreign minister of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), the opposition in exile, went on a tour of Germany and France. NUG hopes to convince European capitals of its good relations with the ethnic armed organisations of the Three Brotherhood Alliance. More broadly, it is seeking to establish itself as a key player in its own right and as the central force in the Myanmar of the future.
Myanmar Army is known to have good relations with Russia. While Ukrainian drones continues to be imported into Myanmar, via long-established networks. Ukrainian company Piranha-Tech provides the anti drones equipment to Junta. In the northern shan state these Ukrainian drones are used against rebels. The rebels themselves use Chinese drones.
Why it matters to India and China?
Myanmar, a neutral country that shares a border with China and India, particularly at the heavily militarized and disputed Walong trijunction, and where the Kachin population is spread across India, northern Myanmar, and China.
In the event of full-scale military conflict erupting between India and China, particularly in the eastern sector, the reaction of Myanmar, as well as the response of armed groups in northern Myanmar such as the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), who hold territory near the trijunction, will be significant for India’s interests.
The KIO could provide valuable intelligence to India in such a scenario and might even strengthen India’s strategic position regarding Tibet. Additionally, some rebel groups have been known to collaborate with Indian security forces.
Indian government-owned companies and private firms have supplied $51 million worth of arms, dual-use items, and raw materials to the military junta since February 2021, according to a United Nations report released in May. India has acknowledged this.
“We have engagement and cooperation with them, a neighboring country, on various issues. Whatever actions we take are in the light of our interests,” said an Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson in response to a query regarding India’s arms exports to Myanmar’s junta. The Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the India-Myanmar border will come to an end. This regime permitted individuals residing within a 16 km radius of the border to traverse freely, unfettered by the usual requirements of a visa or other documentation. However, after the violence witnessed in India’s eastern part, especially Manipur, in the last year, the Indian government has decided against FMR.
India is fencing its borders with Myanmar, indicating that the Indian government is expecting chaos in Myanmar to escalate.
China,is seeking multiple alternate routes to the Strait of Malacca where India and the US can easily monitor Chinese ships. Hence china is developing ports and cities along Myanmar’s coast to gain easy access to the Bay of Bengal. This is why China has now become involved in peace- negotiations in Myanmar’s turbulent situation.
China’s association with Myanmar was aptly summarized by a leader: ‘We should be careful with that. We tend to perceive it as assistance by a country if we consider it as a “friend”, then we tend to perceive it as interference by a foreign country if it doesn’t get along with us’ (Veteran democracy activist and former 88 Generation student leader Ko Mya Aye).
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