As Pakistan urges UN to ask Afghan Taliban to cut its ties with TTP, both TTP and Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction have found new strategies to hurt Pakistan—outsourcing!!!
A reinvigorated TTP is Pakistan Army’s worst nightmare.
In a recent session of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) focused on Afghanistan, Munir Akram, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the UN, urged the UNSC to compel the Taliban Government in Afghanistan to sever its connections with the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Akram cautioned that if left unchecked, the TTP could soon become a significant global terrorist threat.
There was also news that Pakistan and TTP may be negotiating with the help of Taliban leaders and Haqqani. Maulana Yousaf Shah, from Haqqania madrasa, has indicated that negotiations between Pakistan and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are set to resume, contingent on approval from Taliban leaders in Kandahar and the group’s Interior Minister. Pakistan has taken favours from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Sami ul Haq faction, leveraging its influence to persuade the Pakistani Taliban to re-engage in negotiations. Maulana Yousaf Shah, representing Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, confirms that the discussions have taken place.
TTP’s New Strategy : Decentralisation!
TTP differs in structure to the Afghan Taliban in that it lacks a central command and is a much looser coalition of various militant groups, united by hostility towards the central government in Islamabad. So decentralisation was a not a tough task.
By late 2019, the US Department of Defense estimated the number of TTP
fighters in Afghanistan to be a mere three to five thousand, and a UN report in 2020 put this figure only a little higher, at around six thousand. However, the dispersion of the TTP outside of FATA and KP means that the current strength of dormant TTP cells in urban centers remains unknown. Last year TTP claimed to have caused death and injuries to 2193 Pakistani soldiers.
Pakistan claims that TTP now not just has a bigger footprint but also employs a strategy characterized by centralized command but decentralized operations, aimed at causing confusion, providing protection, and garnering political support for militant groups.
From Pakistan’s standpoint, two prominent factions of the Pakistani Taliban, namely the TTP and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction, are increasingly embracing a decentralized approach. They are outsourcing their operations to previously unknown groups, which exhibit characteristics of both local and global jihadist organizations. This is evident in their orchestration and execution of attacks targeting key military objectives.
TTP outsources it’s job to TJP?
On December 12, 2023, TJP carried out a suicide attack at Draban Police station, in which 3-5 Policemen were killed and 10 injured. This attack took place just 8 days after Pakistan was witnessing a TTP that it had never witnessed before.
In February 2023, a new militant group emerged under the name Tehreek-e-Jihad-e-Pakistan (TJP). The TJP claimed responsibility for its first attack in the Chaman district of Balochistan in February of that year. Subsequently, it claimed involvement in recent explosions at a counter-terrorism facility in Swat city, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
On April 27, 2023, the group claimed responsibility for a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) suicide attack on a security forces compound in Lakki Marwat district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Pakistani establishment believes that this mysterious group may be a front for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or Hafiz Gul Bahadur.
The rise of new militant factions and the formation of alliances between former rivals like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Hafiz Gul Bahadur, as well as the TTP and Lashkar-e-Islam, are posing security challenges for the Pakistani security apparatus.
Pakistani claims
According to a media report, Pakistan has provided evidence implicating specific cells of the Afghan Taliban, including cells 041, 051, and 063, in supplying weaponry, finances, and support to Pakistani militant groups, Al Qaeda’s 313 Brigade, and the East Turkistan Islamic Movement
Pakistan claims that communication intercepts available with the Pakistani agencies suggest direct involvement of the Afghan Taliban in aiding local and internationally designated terrorist outfits. One example being ETIM/East Turkestan Islamic Movement. In one communication intercepted by the GDI (General Directorate of Intelligence, Taliban)’ s Badakshan head in August 2022, protection and security were requested for Mullah Abdur Rehman, leader of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in Takhar by cell 041 state intelligence. In another intercepted communication by cell 561, a sum of 0.52 million in Afghan currency was to be provided to Khalid Khurasani, the Jamatul Ahrar leader of the TTP faction, immediately after the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021.
TTP poses an additional challenge for the Pakistan Army amid the escalating security situation. Despite efforts to engage with TTP through various channels, achieving peace remains elusive.
The intricate web of militant groups operating within and around Pakistan poses a significant challenge to the country’s security apparatus. Despite efforts by Pakistan’s Ambassador to the UN to highlight these threats on the international stage, the interconnected nature of these groups, along with their decentralized operations, continues to exploit vulnerabilities within Pakistan’s security infrastructure. The emergence of new factions, alliances between former rivals, and the alleged ties between these groups and the Afghan Taliban underscore the complexities and weaknesses inherent in Pakistan’s military and intelligence capabilities.
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