Arakan Army Seized 14 out 17 Rakhine Townships

The Arakan Army (AA) has now taken control of 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, along with Paletwa Township in neighboring Chin State, following the launch of its large-scale offensive against the military regime in November 2023. The AA has also been advancing rapidly in Bago, Magwe, and Ayeyarwady regions.

This past weekend, the AA seized a junta defensive position in Ngape Township, Magwe Region, killing dozens of soldiers as it expands its operations beyond Rakhine. In response, the military deployed reinforcements from the 99th Light Infantry Division (LID), sending 28 trucks of troops to establish a defensive position at Gote-see-yoe village along the Ann-Padan road near the Rakhine-Magwe border. However, the AA launched an attack last Friday, reportedly killing over 60 junta soldiers, capturing others, and seizing a significant cache of weapons and ammunition.

Why is Magwe important?

Magwe is home to more than a dozen of the military’s ordnance factories, known by their Burmese acronym “KaPaSa.” One of these, KaPaSa 14, located in Ngape, produces missiles and electronic printed circuit boards (PCBs). Additionally, six more factories—KaPaSa 2, 10, 12, 13, 20, and 21—are located on the west bank of the Irrawaddy River within Magwe Region.

Since December 6, the junta has been deploying troops from the 99th LID to Magwe in an effort to defend its Western Command in Ann Township near the Rakhine-Magwe border. By January 29, over 1,300 junta soldiers had been sent to the region, but reports indicate that only around 700 remain, as many have been killed, surrendered, or fled.

Junta carried out 40 Airstrikes in Jan

Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) this week ambushed junta forces trying to retake Mobye town in Pekon Township, southern Shan State. Pekon Township, about 40km from Loikaw, is home to Military Operations Commands 2 and 7. The junta responded with airstrikes, according to residents. Mobye is between the Karenni capital, Loikaw, and southern Shan State, which are both controlled by the junta. It is about 200km east of Naypyitaw. The junta has reportedly suffered heavy losses during its two-month-long offensive to retake Mobye, using new conscripts and the allied Pa-O National Army.
In January alone Myanmar military regime carried out airstrikes in 40 towns across Myanmar in January, killing over 170 people and continuing its war crimes.

China’s Role in keeping Myanmar burning

China plays a dangerous double game in Myanmar, supplying the military junta with surveillance technology and subpar weapons while simultaneously arming rebel groups like the Arakan Army (who target Rohingya) and Kachin Independence Army. By backing both sides, China keeps Myanmar in a state of conflict and instability.

With a 1,250-mile border between them, China’s top priority in Myanmar is safeguarding its own security and stability. If the junta fails to provide this, the Chinese Communist Party has shown a willingness to shift support to insurgents who appear to be gaining the upper hand. However, this strategy risks prolonging the conflict and potentially fracturing Myanmar.

Regardless of how the conflict unfolds, China is working to protect its economic and strategic interests in the country. Myanmar provides China with a vital route to the Indian Ocean, including access to a deep-water port in Rakhine State. Despite the ongoing civil war, China has pressured the junta to complete the port and establish a special economic zone. At the same time, rebel forces have pledged to safeguard Chinese investments, such as a Beijing-backed nickel mine in Mandalay. These conflicting assurances allow China to profit from Myanmar’s instability, whether the country remains intact or splinters.

China’s double game was also explained by Indian Army veteran and special Forces commando Maj Digvijay (Retd).