Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, would unleash severe economic and geopolitical consequences for the world and China, given its centrality to global energy and trade.

A closure would disrupt approximately 20% of global oil consumption, around 20 million barrels per day, and 30% of seaborne oil trade, primarily from key producers like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Additionally, about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, mainly from Qatar and UAE, passes through the Strait, and a blockade would tighten supply, intensifying competition between Asia and Europe. Europe which gets about 18% of oil and 15% of LNG through strait of Hormuz will have to depend on USA for its energy needs.

Oil prices could surge to $100–$150 per barrel, with extreme scenarios pushing Brent crude to $350, triggering global inflation, and raising costs for transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods. This would strain economies, exacerbate supply chain delays, and inflate maritime insurance premiums. Middle Eastern Gulf countries, heavily reliant on agricultural imports like grains, oilseeds, and sugar through the Strait, would face heightened food insecurity, particularly in nations like Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Geopolitically, a blockade could provoke a military response from the United States, which maintains its 5th Fleet in Bahrain and considers closing the Strait a “red line,” potentially escalating into a wider conflict. Gulf Arab states, dependent on oil exports, might back intervention, further complicating regional dynamics, while Iran’s actions could alienating neutral or allied nations. Few alternative routes exist, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline able to divert only a fraction of the Strait’s flows, and with no viable bypass for LNG available, the global energy crisis would deepen.

For China, the world’s largest oil importer, a Hormuz blockade would pose a particularly acute challenge due to its heavy reliance on Gulf energy. Over 50% of China’s crude imports come from the region, with the Strait serving as a critical conduit for supplies from key producers, including Iran, its third-largest oil supplier. Disruptions would also affect China’s imports of LNG and natural gas liquids like propane and butane from Qatar and UAE, threatening energy-intensive industries such as petrochemicals. A spike in oil prices would inflate China’s import bill, fueling inflation and potentially slowing economic growth, though its 90-day commercial stockpile (meeting International Energy Agency requirements) could provide short-term relief. However, a sustained closure would strain these reserves. Beyond energy, China’s Belt and Road Initiative depends on stable Middle Eastern trade routes, and a blockade would hamper exports of refined products, methanol, and fertilizers, while increasing shipping costs and delays would disrupt its global trade with Asia and Africa Europe. Geopolitically, China faces a dilemma: its close ties with Iran, which supplies approximately 70% of its oil exports to China despite U.S. sanctions, could be tested, as a closure would harm China’s own energy security. The U.S. has urged China to pressure Iran against such actions, highlighting Beijing’s leverage. China’s mediation of the 2023 Saudi-Iran reconciliation is a proof of its stake in Gulf stability, and a blockade might force Beijing to choose between supporting Iran or and protecting its broader economic interests, risking tensions with Gulf states or the US. Militarily, China might consider expanding its regional presence to secure trade routes, though this risks challenging U.S. dominance and escalating tensions. While China could seek alternative oil from Oman, Yemen, or Russia, these sources cannot fully offset Gulf losses.

Iran’s ability to close the Strait adds further complexity, though a full blockade would be self-inflicted damage. Iran exports around 2.1 million barrels per day through the Strait, mostly to China, and a closure would cut this vital revenue stream, risking economic collapse and domestic unrest. China’s opposition to disruptions could deter Iran, as Beijing might wield its economic influence to prevent a blockade. Iran possesses the means to disrupt traffic—through mines, drones, missiles, and speedboats, as demonstrated in the 1980s Tanker War and recent Houthi tactics in the Red Sea—but a complete closure is challenging due to the Strait’s 33-kilometer width at its narrowest and the U.S. naval presence. Experts suggest Iran might opt for limited disruptions to avoid massive retaliation. As of June 2025, Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait, pending approval from its Supreme National Security Council, but analysts consider a full blockade unlikely due to Iran’s economic dependence and the risk of global backlash.

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz would precipitate a global energy crisis, driving up oil and LNG prices, fueling inflation, and disrupting trade. China, heavily reliant on Gulf oil, would face acute energy and economic challenges, potentially straining its relationship with Iran. While Iran has the capability to disrupt the Strait, a full closure is improbable due to the economic harm it would inflict on itself and pressure from China and the U.S. Limited disruptions remain a plausible risk, but the shared global and Chinese interest in maintaining stability makes a blockade a high-stakes move for Iran.