Excerpts from Annual Threat Assessment by US Intelligence community.
The United States faces a precarious global order in the coming year, marked by escalating strategic competition among major powers, heightened transnational challenges, and significant regional conflicts. China, Russia, Iran, and non-state actors challenge established international norms and U.S. dominance. Additionally, new technologies, vulnerabilities in public health, and environmental changes pose global risks that are difficult to predict. The Gaza crisis exemplifies how regional conflicts can have widespread consequences, complicating international cooperation. The future world order will be shaped by persuasive arguments on governance, societal organization, and effective systems for economic growth. The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment identifies pressing threats to U.S. national interests, encompassing traditional and nontraditional challenges from adversaries, regional issues, and transnational threats.
China and Russia pose significant challenges to the rules-based international order, with China having the capability to compete directly with the United States and potentially reshape the global order in its favor. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine highlights its threat to this order. Additionally, regional powers like Iran and North Korea contribute to instability, while U.S. actions aimed at deterring aggression can be misinterpreted, complicating crisis management. Regional conflicts, such as those involving HAMAS and Israel, have broader implications in the evolving global landscape, affecting various domains and involving the interests of the United States and its allies.
Economic strain, exacerbated by factors such as rising debt burdens, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and losses from extreme weather events, continues to destabilize many countries amid ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite some relief in global agricultural prices, domestic food inflation remains high in numerous nations, heightening vulnerabilities to economic and geopolitical shocks. Meanwhile, global challenges such as climate change, technological advancements, and the competition between democratic and authoritarian governments contribute to a complex environment requiring cooperative solutions. The rapid progress in fields like AI and biotechnology, along with convergences in science and technology, may lead to significant breakthroughs. However, these advancements also present risks, with climate change amplifying threats to populations, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and fueling migration and pandemic risks.
India- China
The shared disputed border between India and China will remain a strain on their bilateral relationship. While the two sides have not engaged in significant cross-border clashes since 2020, they are maintaining large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between opposing forces risk miscalculation and escalation into armed conflict.
India–Pakistan
New Delhi and Islamabad are inclined to sustain the current fragile calm in their relationship following their renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control in early 2021. However, neither side has used this period of calm to rebuild their bilateral ties as each government has focused on more pressing domestic priorities including election preparations and campaigning and for Pakistan, concerns over rising militant attacks in its west. Pakistan’s long history of supporting anti-India militant groups and India’s increased willingness, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations raise the risk of escalation during a crisis. There remains the potential for an event to trigger a rapid escalation.